Virginia redistricting battle enters home stretch

Democrats’ push to redistrict in Virginia is entering the home stretch as the party seeks to solidify an advantage in four more House districts ahead of the November midterms.   

Heavyweight donors have poured millions of dollars into the April 21 contest, which asks Virginians to consider a constitutional amendment that would redraw the Old Dominion’s maps mid-decade and give the party the edge in all but one of 11 congressional districts.

The districts currently held by Republicans are outpacing blue districts in turnout, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), as polls show just a slim majority of voters support the push. But Democrats have a significant fundraising advantage and ‘yes’-vote organizers say a string of new early voting locations could give the effort an energy surge this weekend, fueling hopes that the party could get a boost in the battle for control of Congress.

“It’s going to be a close race,” said Virginia Democratic strategist Jared Leopold. “It is a unique special election where both Republicans and Democrats are pretty motivated.” 

Virginia offers Democrats what is likely their last chance to pass a set of new congressional lines ahead of the midterms, in which they need to net just three seats to flip Republican’s narrow majority in the lower chamber. 

Old Dominion voters are weighing in on whether to amend their state constitution to let the General Assembly “temporarily adopt new congressional districts,” circumventing a bipartisan independent redistricting commission “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census.”  

If approved by voters later this month, the proposed map could expand Democrats from a 6-5 majority in the state’s House delegation to a 10-1 advantage. If rejected, the current maps would stay in place until at least the 2030 Census.  

National Democrats have spent big in hopes of getting the plan across the finish line — and a group linked to tech billionaire and GOP donor Peter Thiel funneled funds into the opposition this week.

In another signal of the stakes for both sides of the aisle, the referendum has seen surprisingly strong turnout in early voting, despite the wonky scheduling of the April 21 vote — keeping pace with the early voting numbers in the state’s 2025 general election.

Turnout has appeared stronger in districts currently held by Republicans, which Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, said should make Democrats “quite concerned” about their prospects. 

But Virginians for Fair Elections, a group that’s urging a yes vote on the amendment, said they’re encouraged by the numbers so far and optimistic about a string of satellite early voting locations that are set to open up this weekend, giving more Democrats easier access to the polls.

“We’re seeing strong early vote momentum across the Commonwealth, and Super Saturday is about taking that to the next level by making it easier than ever for people cast a ballot close to home,” said Dan Gottlieb, communications director for the vote-yes campaign. 

Leopold acknowledged a “slower burn on the ‘yes’ side,” but argued “you’re starting to see some real pickups” with more expected this weekend. 

Democrats are also hopeful about a string of satellite early voting locations that are set to open up this weekend, giving more Democrats access to get to the polls as ‘yes’-vote proponents make a “Super Saturday” push to turn out voters.

“It’s going to be a slightly slower burn on the ‘yes’ side, but you’re starting to see some real pickups. And I think you’re going to see even more this Saturday,” said Leopold. 

“It’s going to make a big difference to have more of these satellite locations open,” he continued. “If you’re in Fairfax County, there’s three early voting locations in the county of more than a million people. So if you’re in a lot of places, you have to drive 20 or 30 minutes to get to an early voting location.” 

So far, more than $49 million has been funneled into Virginians for Fair Elections, according to VPAP data.

That includes more than $30 million from House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with Democratic leadership, including $8 million added in the last month. The Fairness Project, a left-leaning advocacy group focused on ballot initiatives, has given $11 million.

Virginians for Fair Maps, a group urging a ‘no’-vote, has brought in around $17 million so far, according to VPAP.  The Thiel-linked group gave $2.5 million to Justice for Democracy PAC, according to filings, which is behind a controversial mailer push that state Attorney General Jay Jones (D) blasted as “a modern playbook for voter suppression.”

‘No’-vote proponents argue that the state shouldn’t go around the bipartisan redistricting reform passed by voters in 2020.  

“There’s a ton of national money being spent on this, but this still feels like a jump ball,” said Brian Cannon, who serves on the advisory council for No Gerrymandering Virginia, a bipartisan advocacy group working against the measure. “They’ve spent $40 million dollars and they’re only up a few points in the polls,” he said of the ‘yes’-vote push. 

Cannon, a Democrat who worked on the earlier reform that amended the constitution and created a bipartisan redistricting commission, underscored that the ‘no’-vote side isn’t “just a left-right food fight” even as the state Republican Party pushes back on the Democrats’ effort. 

“I hope that as we talk to independent-minded Republicans, independents, Democrats, that they will think a little bit about what this means and what going back on the important democracy reform we did in 2020, what the real cost of that is,” he said. 

Polling on the measure has been sparse, but one survey taken late last month by George Mason University’s Schar School and The Washington Post found a slight majority of registered Virginia voters say they plan to vote for the measure, with 53 percent. Forty-four percent said they’ll vote against it. Among likely voters, the margin was narrower, at 52 percent backing the measure and 47 percent against it.

“We’re used to, in Virginia, being a competitive state, so the idea of having a lead in the high single digits for Virginia Democrats is good,” said Virginia Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett, noting the low number of undecideds in the poll as a good sign. 

“The Democrats generally want to see redistricting happen, and more Democrats like it. The Republicans don’t,” he added. “And independents are breaking sort of about how they feel about the president. And in Virginia, that’s a recipe for Democrats to do very well.” 

That same survey also found a drop-off in Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s (D) approval rating, a stark change for the new governor after her strong win last November. 

Virginians for Fair Maps pointed out Spanberger’s approval numbers in a post on X, arguing that “that’s what happens when you flip-flop and try to silence millions of Virginians.” 

The governor has been somewhat restrained in her support of the measure, in contrast with the outspoken approach of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who championed Democrats’ push in the Golden State. But Spanberger waved off the criticism and reaffirmed her support for the measure this week.

“If everybody hated me, why is everybody putting my face on their mailers for the referendum?” she said, as reported by the Virginia Mercury, in apparent reference to ‘vote no’ materials that have stoked confusion about which side she supports. 

Hult shrugged off any direct connection between Spanberger’s approval ratings and the Democrat-backed redistricting measure, but she raised concerns that Democrats made a “tactical error” in their referendum messaging by tying the election to the party’s national redistricting push.

Virginia’s proposed amendment, which prompted the state’s midterm primaries to shift from a June start to August to consider the changes, could be pivotal as the parties battle for control of Congress this fall. 

Republicans have passed new maps in Texas, North Carolina and Missouri, and they’re eyeing pre-midterm changes in Florida. Democrats have responded with a redraw in California and scored a surprise pickup opportunity with a court-ordered map in Utah. 

Meanwhile, Republican leaders in Florida are set to convene this week for a special session on redistricting that could offset Virginia’s gains by adding more seats for the GOP — making the states the last two redistricting battlefields before this year’s midterms. 

“I think it will pass. It’s not a slam dunk. It’s going to be close,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said of the measure in an interview with The Hill. “The message that we’re trying to get across is: they’ve rigged Texas. They’re about to rig Florida. They cheated in North Carolina and Ohio and Missouri. As much as we want to be the good guys and the children of the Enlightenment, Democrats have to fight back. And even though we hate gerrymandering, it’s temporary. It’s only a suspension of the Constitution. We’re doing this specifically to fight back against Donald Trump.”