Florida lawmakers eye redistricting push: What to know about DeSantis’s House map

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) unveiled a new congressional map on Monday that looks to nab Republicans four extra seats in the House — just one day before state lawmakers are slated to meet for a redistricting special session.

Florida lawmakers are set to convene Tuesday to mull the mid-decade redistricting push and other legislative priorities, with the session seen as the last opportunity for Republicans to redraw congressional maps ahead of November.

Florida currently has a 20-8 Republican edge in its congressional delegation, but the new map aims to create a 24-4 majority for the party in the House, impacting Democrats in Tampa, Central Florida and South Florida. 

Some political observers, however, are skeptical that this math will hold up — and whether any approved maps would hold up in court due to expected Democratic litigation.

Here’s what to know as Florida lawmakers prepare to take up redistricting:

DeSantis seeks four more GOP seats

The Florida governor’s office first revealed its proposed House map to Fox News Digital. The new lines show four blue-coded House seats, one in Central Florida and three in South Florida, while the remaining districts are colored red for Republicans. 

The new lines look to eliminate Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D) Tampa-based seat and Rep. Darren Soto’s (D) seat in Central Florida. Rep. Maxwell Frost’s (D) district, meanwhile, is smaller in the proposed map.

Republicans also consolidated five South Florida Democrats’ districts into three, which would impact Reps. Jared Moskowitz, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Lois Frankel and Frederica Wilson as well as the district former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick represented. 

Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report, suggested on the social platform X that the lawmakers most endangered from the governor’s map include Soto, Castor, Moskowitz and Wasserman Schultz. 

The color-coding of DeSantis’s map is notable because the state constitution includes clear anti-gerrymandering language, meaning lawmakers can’t redraw election maps for partisan gain. The map that DeSantis’s office submitted to lawmakers is multicolor-coded. 

The proposed lines surprised some Republicans who expected the Florida governor to submit a more conservative map, offering the party between one and three seats if approved.

Map still not a shoo-in for party

Political observers noted that the new map proposed by DeSantis doesn’t necessarily mean the GOP will be able to nab that many seats. Some have also suggested the map could endanger some Republican incumbents.

Wasserman wrote on X that “in a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP.” 

Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, suggested on social media the map may only offer three more Republican-leaning seats instead of four. 

“Initial look at the FL map — designed for 4 GOP pickups, although one of them is arguably a Toss-up for 2026 and another 2 are more like Leans R,” he said. 

“Republicans are probably under 50/50 to flip four House seats in Florida in 2026,” echoed Zachary Donnini, head of data science for VoteHub, on X. “At a minimum, Kathy Castor’s FL-14 race will be highly competitive.”

DeSantis challenges state constitution language

The governor, with his new map proposal, is notably challenging language in the state constitution that voters adopted more than a decade ago, which bars redistricting that would undercut representation for voters of color’s.

“No apportionment plan or district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory,” the state constitution reads.  

David Axelman, general counsel for DeSantis, wrote in a Monday letter to leaders in the state Legislature that the “use of race in redistricting should never happen” after pointing out that several congressional districts were drawn, including the current 20th Congressional District, to comply with the Voting Rights Act.  

“Whether race is the predominant reason for drawing a district or just one among other reasons should make no constitutional difference. Properly understood, the Fourteenth Amendment forbids the government from divvying up the citizenry based in whole or in part upon race,” Axelman argued.

He added that the U.S. Supreme Court was “poised to affirm this basic nondiscrimination principle” in a pending case at the high court over the Voting Rights Act and whether the use of race should be considered in redistricting. During a rare rehearing of the case in October, the high court seemed inclined to limit the use of race in redrawing congressional maps.  

However, the Supreme Court has not yet issued a ruling on that case. 

“Race was neither a predominant factor nor one of many factors. And because race was never considered, the map also makes no attempt to adhere to the race-based requirements of the [Fair District Amendments],” Axelman added, referencing the Florida antipartisan gerrymandering ballot amendment voters adopted in 2010.

“Because those provisions require consideration of race in the drawing of congressional districts, they cannot satisfy strict scrutiny and are unconstitutional under the Fourteenth Amendment,” he added.

DeSantis’s lawyer suggested that if the Supreme Court does limit the Voting Rights Act, other aspects of the gerrymandering amendment in the state constitution may not be valid.

Florida courts could throw out new map

The case being put forward by DeSantis’s legal team is tricky. On the one hand, the U.S. Supreme Court is inclined to curb how much race can be factored into redistricting with its impending Voting Rights Act opinion.

The Supreme Court is expected to issue its next set of opinions on Wednesday, though observers believe the ruling may get kicked all the way to June.

And, even if the Voting Rights Act is rolled back, the Florida Constitution still states that maps cannot be drawn for partisan gain.

The fact that DeSantis’s office highlighted in its map proposal to Fox News Digital a clear red and blue outline of the congressional districts also raises questions about the political impartiality of the map.

Julie Merz, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), railed against DeSantis’s maps in a Monday statement, calling the move “a corrupt partisan power grab.”

“We’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: Republicans should be careful what they wish for. Make no mistake, the DCCC is on offense with four Florida seats already on our Districts in Play, and we anticipate this blatantly illegal map will be struck down by the courts,” she added.

It’s not clear, either, that the antipartisan gerrymandering amendment would be made void if the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately rules against the the use of race in redistricting.

Still, DeSantis, has a favorable Florida Supreme Court, with his appointees making up the majority of the panel. It remains unclear if the court would rule in his favor, however.

Virginia’s new lines are no guarantee, either

Virginia Democrats scored a win last week when voters narrowly passed a redistricting ballot measure allowing lawmakers to temporarily redraw the state’s House map before the next U.S. census. The new map gives Democrats four more pic0kup opportunities in the House this November, boosting the party’s 6-5 edge to 10-1.

But, that victory could be short-lived for Democrats.

The Virginia Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case considering the legality of the redistricting referendum on Monday.

The hearing focused particularly on whether Democratic state lawmakers followed the required procedural rules when they held the special session in which the legislation ultimately passed.

It remains unclear how the high court in Virginia will rule in the case. But if the maps are rejected, it would deliver a major blow to Democrats amid the national redistricting war.