Fox News Voter Analysis: How Trump regained the White House

After a bitterly contested presidential campaign full of unprecedented twists and turns, voters returned Donald Trump to the White House after four years out of power. In an election where voters across the country wanted change, they chose Trump’s outsider appeal over Kamala Harris’ promise to “turn the page” on the Trump era.

Trump’s victory was powered by his strength on the economy and immigration – two of voters’ top concerns. He was seen as a stronger leader than Harris in a time of turmoil, and voters remembered his presidency more fondly than their evaluations of the current administration. Trump ran up the score with his base while narrowing traditional Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic, and young voters.

Harris came close in her bid to become the first woman elected to the presidency but was unable to make enough gains in the ideological middle of the electorate to offset defections among groups that traditionally vote Democratic.

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Preliminary data from the Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of more than 110,000 voters nationwide, highlights the campaign’s key dynamics.

Voters headed to the polls believing the country was on the wrong track (70%, up from 60% who felt that way four years ago) and seeking something different: most wanted a change in how the country is run, with roughly a quarter seeking complete and total upheaval.

Those seeking complete change in the country’s affairs voted for the former president by a wide margin.

Voters’ frustrations with Joe Biden’s administration were a drag on Harris’ candidacy, as nearly 6 in 10 disapproved of the job Biden has done.

Voters had rosier recollections of Trump’s time in office, with half approving of the job he did as president. Four years ago, 47% approved of the job Trump had done.

This desire for change was coupled with split views on the role of government. Slightly more than half felt the government should be doing more to solve the country’s problems, a modest decline from 2020 (57%). Some 45% felt the government was doing too many things better left to the private sector.

Profile of the Vote

The nation’s deep divides – by gender, education, and area of residence – were on vivid display. Men backed Trump by 10 points, while women went for Harris by 8 points. The 18-point gender gap was a touch wider than 2020 (17 points).

In 2020, Trump won men by 5 points and Biden won women by 12.

This divide was readily apparent in views of societal gains for women. Some 4 in 10 Trump supporters (43%) were concerned that society’s focus on gains for women had come at the expense of men; just 14% of Harris felt that way. Overall, 29% were concerned.

Voters without a college degree went for Trump by 12 points; college-educated voters went for Harris by 15 points. Harris’ showing among college-educated voters was 1 point worse than Biden’s 2020 showing among college-educated voters, while Trump bettered his 2020 numbers among noncollege voters by 4 points.

Trump had a particular advantage among White voters without a degree (+29 points), thanks in large part to his 38-point edge among noncollege White men.

Harris won college-educated Whites by 8 points and college-educated White women by 16 points – both in the ballpark of Biden’s 2020 margins (+7 points and +21 points, respectively).

Overall, White voters backed Trump by 12 points, exactly the same as his 12-point advantage in 2020.

Trump ran up the score in rural areas (+26 points, up from a 22-point edge in 2020), while Harris ran slightly behind Biden’s 2020 numbers in urban areas (+28 points, compared to Biden +33).

Suburban voters backed Harris by 6 points, less than Biden’s 10-point margin four years ago. Suburban women, a major source of strength for Biden (+19 points), went heavily for Harris (+16 points) – but she lost ground among suburban men (Trump +5 points, compared to +1 for Biden).

While the election was, in part, about the deep divides in American society, Trump’s success in attracting traditional Democratic constituencies was also a defining feature. He improved on his 2020 numbers among Hispanics (41%, +6 points), Black voters (15%, +7 points from 2020), and young voters (46%, +10 points).

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These rightward shifts were particularly notable among Hispanic men (+8 points), Black men (+12 points from 2020), and men under 30 (+14 points).

Seniors, who backed Trump by 3 points in 2020, were once again in the former president’s column.

Trump won Catholics by 9 points and Protestants by 22 points, while Harris held the edge among Jewish voters (+34 points), Muslims (+32 points), and the religiously unaffiliated (+40 points).

White Catholics favored Trump by 20 points, while White evangelical Christians broke for Trump by a massive 59-point margin.

Voters similarly divided along lines of religious attendance: Trump won those who regularly attend services (of any denomination) by 22 points; Harris won those who infrequently or never attend by 13 points.

The vice president won union households (+12 points, down from Biden’s 14-point edge in 2020). As he did in 2020, Trump had an advantage among military households (+13 points) and gun owner households (+26 points).

Overall, Trump’s strongest support came from White evangelicals, rural voters, Whites without a college degree, conservatives, and men.

Harris’ best groups included college-educated women, Black voters, liberals, and urban voters.

That each candidate successfully appealed to their base is hardly surprising in a hyper-partisan political environment. Most Democrats (95%) backed Harris; slightly fewer Republicans (92%) backed Trump.

Nearly three-quarters of Republicans (73%) considered themselves part of the MAGA movement. And while the Harris campaign touted endorsements from prominent Republicans, she was unable to convince enough non-MAGA Republicans to cross the aisle.

Just 7% of voters self-identified as true independents, meaning they do not lean toward one party or another. Harris had a 7-point advantage with this pivotal swing group, a decline from Biden’s 15-point edge in 2020.

Harris was able to appeal to political moderates (+17 points), though once again to a lesser degree than Biden (+26 points in 2020).

Most voters (89%) were locked into their choice of candidate for months, while the small number of late deciders split evenly.

Views of the Candidates

In a time of domestic discord and international conflict, Trump was able to project significant strength of character. A majority saw him as a strong leader; fewer felt that way about Harris.

Voters also believed Trump would capably handle a crisis (54-48%) and had the right policy ideas (52%-47%).

Harris had advantages on personal character (53% vs 43% for Trump), honesty (47%-41%), and having the mental capacity to serve as president (57%-52%). Equal numbers thought each would look out for people like them (48%-48%).

But in an election where voters wanted change, slightly more thought Trump would bring positive change (51%-48%).

Trump’s voters were largely motivated by support for the former president (79%) rather than a vote against Harris (21%). Two-thirds of the vice president’s supporters (66%) described their vote as for her; 34% as against Trump.

On balance, voters had slightly more favorable views of Harris (48% favorable, 50% unfavorable) as a person than Trump (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable). The same was true at the vice-presidential level: views of Tim Walz (43% favorable, 42% unfavorable) were marginally better than opinions of JD Vance (43% favorable, 45% unfavorable). Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his third-party presidential bid and endorsed Trump in August, was just a touch less popular than the two running mates (42% favorable, 43% unfavorable).

Although he won, Trump was unable to fully rehabilitate his image during his time out of office: four years ago, his favorable rating was under water by 7 points (46% favorable vs. 53% unfavorable).

The spotlight was less kind to Biden, whose sharply negative favorability rating (40% favorable, 58% unfavorable) slipped significantly from four years ago (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable).

Views of the candidates were shaped over the course of a condensed campaign marked by a string of earthshaking events: the criminal cases against Donald Trump, two assassination attempts against the former president, Biden withdrawing from the race after the first debate, and Harris attempting to be the first woman elected to the presidency.

Relatively few voters (13%) said the possibility of electing the first woman president was the most important factor to their vote. Harris won these voters by a wide margin – but a third backed Trump to deny Harris the chance to be the first female commander-in-chief.

The image of a bloodied and defiant Trump after the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, clearly galvanized his supporters, as 16% said the attempts were the most important factor to their vote, and they overwhelmingly backed Trump.

Voters had a net-positive view of the Secret Service (52% approve, 46% disapprove), though 62% of Trump voters disapproved of the job the organization is doing.

Opinions of the Supreme Court (50% approve, 49% disapprove) were evenly divided, while two-thirds disapproved of Congress (31% approve, 68% disapprove).

Views on the Issues

As voters headed to the polls, they said the economy was far and away the top issue facing the country, followed distantly by immigration and abortion.

Four in 10 voters (40%) said inflation was the single most important factor to their vote, and they backed Trump by almost two-to-one.

Harris countered Trump’s advantages on inflation and immigration by winning the 26% who focused primarily on abortion by 41 points and the 50% who prioritized the future of American democracy by 27 points.

Nearly one-third (31%) said freedom of speech was most important to their vote, and they went somewhat more narrowly for Trump (+8 points).

Voters had a negative view of the economy: nearly two-thirds rated it as not good (40%) or downright poor (24%). Four years ago, in the depths of a coronavirus-induced recession, only 14% said economic conditions were poor.

In a sign of inflation’s economic toll, nearly three times as many voters said they were falling behind financially as said they were getting ahead. In 2020, 13% said they were getting ahead and 18% were falling behind, with the majority (69%) holding steady.

Those who said they were getting ahead went for Harris by 42 points and those holding steady backed her by a narrower 6-point spread, while those falling behind went for Trump by 29 points.

Nearly all voters were concerned about being able to afford food (91%, including 67% very concerned), and most were worried about paying for health care (84%, 54% very concerned), housing (79%, 51% very), and gas (79%, 48% very).

Voters preferred Trump to Harris by 9 points on handling the economy and by 5 points on taxes.

Despite preferring Trump on the economy, voters split on his signature economic policy, increasing tariffs on goods imported to the United States.

Trump’s advantage on immigration was larger than his edge on the economy, as voters preferred him on the issue by 15 points.

Over the course of the campaign, Trump promised “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history” – and succeeded in changing voters’ minds on the issue. Four years ago, 70% believed undocumented immigrants should be offered the chance to apply for legal status, while 29% felt they should be deported. Voters’ views this year were markedly different.

Relatedly, two-thirds favored limiting the number of immigrants allowed to apply for asylum – a policy adopted by both the Trump and Biden administrations, but more closely associated with Trump.

Voters also thought Trump would do a better job handling crime than Harris by 9 points.

Harris’ advantages on climate change (voters preferred her to Trump by 18 points) and abortion (Harris +18 points) outpaced Trump’s edge on immigration and crime.

All told, nearly two-thirds (63%) said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, up from the 59% who felt that way four years ago, before the repeal of Roe v. Wade.

The balance was closer, however, when voters considered a ban after 15 weeks: 46% in favor, 53% opposed.

A slim majority opposed banning gender-affirming medical treatments for minors who identify as transgender. The Trump campaign spent millions of advertising dollars highlighting Harris’ past support of gender-affirming care for the incarcerated.

Even if they did not agree with her on transgender health care, voters saw Harris as better able to handle health care more broadly (by 8 points) and largely envisioned a more active government role. Majorities felt the government should be more involved in lowering the price of prescription medication (75%), eliminating medical debt (58%), and ensuring individuals have health insurance coverage (58%).

Slightly fewer, 50%, said the government should be more involved in ensuring children are vaccinated against common preventable diseases, but just 22% wanted the government less involved in vaccinations.

A week before the election, Harris used a speech at the Ellipse in Washington – the site of the Jan. 6, 2021, Trump rally that preceded the violent events at the Capitol – to cast Trump as a threat to American democracy.

A 55% majority was concerned Trump would move the country closer to authoritarian rule, while less than half (46%) felt Harris posed a similar threat.

Even so, majorities felt each candidate’s views were too extreme.

Voters split over how much responsibility Trump bore for the violence at the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Harris won those who felt Trump had a great deal of responsibility by 86 points, while Trump won those who felt he was not to blame at all by 91 points. The group in the middle – who felt he was somewhat responsible for the violence – went for Trump by 40 points.

In general, slightly more voters felt the way Republicans talk about politics leads to violence (56%) than felt the same about Democrats (50%).

Despite unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020 election results and Trump raising similar concerns about the 2024 contest, three-quarters of voters (75%) were confident votes would be counted accurately at the national level, and even more were confident in their state’s ability to properly count the vote.

While 31% lacked confidence that ineligible voters would be prohibited from voting, that was down from 35% who felt that way four years ago. Few (9%) worried that eligible voters would be prevented from casting ballots.

Overall, 89% felt both candidates were obligated to accept the results of the election once all the votes were counted and the inevitable legal challenges were resolved. The vast majority of Harris voters (95%) and Trump voters (82%) felt there was an obligation to accept the results.

Trump countered Harris’ closing argument by suggesting Harris was too weak and untested to respond effectively in a crisis. Three-quarters thought Harris had been tested, and these voters felt she had delivered negative results by a 5-point margin. Most voters felt Trump had been tested, and slightly more felt he had delivered positive results than negative ones.

The ongoing violence in the Middle East served to reinforce Trump’s argument about leadership in a crisis, as voters believed he would do a better job handling the situation.

Voters favored continuing aid to Israel to fight Hamas and Hezbollah by 9 points, while favoring continued aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression by 11 points.

There was a marked shift in voters’ views of America’s role in the world. Just 20% wanted the country to take a more active role in solving the world’s problems, down from 37% who felt that way four years ago. Roughly equal numbers said the current approach was about right (38%) or preferred a less active role (40%).

States

Georgia – Trump

Georgia swung back to the Republican column after Biden eked out a win by the slimmest of margins in 2020. With the margins so narrow, the smallest shifts from 2020 would have been enough to flip the state to Trump. Instead, he got substantial movement among constituencies Democrats were counting on to keep the state blue.

Harris won women by 5 points, down from Biden’s 10-point advantage in 2020. She won voters under age 30 by 9 points, down from +19 for Biden. There was a similar shift among Black voters, who form the backbone of Democratic support in the Peach State: from Biden +86 points to Harris +71 points.

The shift among Black men was particularly consequential, as they went for Harris by just 51 points after breaking for Biden by 76 points four years ago.

Harris was counting on a strong performance in the suburbs to offset Trump’s strength (+31 points) with rural voters, but here again she came up well short of Biden’s mark: winning by just 3 points, a far cry from Biden’s 12-point win.

Trump was dominant with White voters without a college degree (78%) and White evangelical Christians (82%).

Trump appealed to voters across the state on economic grounds and found a ready audience, as huge numbers said they were concerned about paying for necessities like food (93%), health care (87%), gas (84%), and housing (83%).

Georgia voters trusted Trump over Harris on the economy by 8 points.

Voters preferred Harris by a wider margin (19 points) on abortion. Harris highlighted the case of Amber Thurman, the Georgia mother who died waiting for care after complications from an abortion pill, as an example of the harms of abortion bans.

Trump, on the other hand, shone a spotlight on Laken Riley, a nursing student allegedly killed by an illegal immigrant while jogging in February. His message on immigration proved compelling, as voters favored him on the issue by 17 points.

Overall, 54% would prefer illegal immigrants be deported, a substantial increase from the 32% who felt that way in 2020. Less than half (44%) said undocumented immigrants should be given the chance to apply for legal status.

Georgia was a focal point for controversy after the 2020 election, but 8 in 10 voters were confident this year’s votes would be counted accurately.

North Carolina – Trump

Trump triumphed once again in North Carolina, as Republicans have now won 10 of the last 11 presidential elections in the state. Barack Obama’s narrow win in 2008 was the only Democratic victory since Jimmy Carter’s presidency.

Trump posted similar results to 2020 among White voters without a college degree (74%, vs 69% four years ago), rural voters (63%, up 3 points from 2020), and White evangelical Christians (87%, up 1 point from 2020).

That alone might have been a winning formula – but shifts among Black voters and voters under age 30 pushed Trump over the top.

Overall, young voters backed Harris by just 8 points after going for Biden by 16 points four years ago. The shift was entirely powered by young men, who backed the former president by 16 points. Women under 30 went for Harris by 25 points.

The story was similar among Black voters: Black women were nearly universal in their support for Harris (93%), while 19% of Black men backed Trump, up from 6% in 2020.

Overall, 88% of Black voters picked Harris, down substantially from Biden’s 94%.

Harris won political moderates, a group that voted for Biden by 26 points, by just 16 points. She had hoped to run up the margins in the suburbs, but Trump more than held his own with 44% of the vote, up from 43% in 2020.

Just 12% of North Carolina voters said they were getting ahead financially, while almost three times as many (31%) said they were falling behind – and these voters broke heavily for Trump.

Some 42% cited the economy as the top issue facing the country. Harris kept the race close by nearly battling Trump to a draw on who could better handle the economy. Overall, voters trusted him over her by 5 points.

Still, the 41% of voters who said inflation was the most important factor to their vote broke for Trump by 31 points, 65%-34%.

In the governor’s race, Republican Mark Robinson faced allegations of discriminatory remarks and inappropriate online behavior. The scandals did not help Republicans retake the governorship, which Democrats have now won in 8 of the last 9 elections.

A majority (56%) held unfavorable opinions of Robinson, while more than half (52%) viewed Democrat Josh Stein favorably.

Trump endorsed Robinson, but a majority of voters said the endorsement did not affect their view of the former president.

Methodology

The Fox News Voter Analysis is a survey of more than 110,000 voters and 18,000 nonvoters nationwide. It includes more than 4,000 interviews with voters in Arizona; 4,000 in Georgia; 3,700 in Michigan; 3,600 in Nevada; 3,600 in North Carolina; 4,000 in Pennsylvania; and 3,900 in Wisconsin. The survey was conducted from Oct. 28 through Nov. 5. Full methodological details are available here.

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