A new poll points to a massive gender gap in two crucial battlegrounds that are among the seven states that will likely determine if Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Trump wins the 2024 election.
Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, edges Trump 49%-46% among all likely voters in Michigan, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday. According to the poll, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each received 1% support.
But the survey points to a massive divide among the sexes, with women backing Harris by a 20-point margin and Trump, the Republican Party nominee, up by 16 points among men.
In Wisconsin, the poll indicates Harris and Trump deadlocked at 48%, with all listed third-party candidates each receiving less than 1% support.
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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on Thursday. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
Harris tops Trump by 18 points among women in Wisconsin, with the former president leading the sitting vice president by 21 points among men.
The news surveys are the latest to illustrate an extremely wide gender divide in the White House race.
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“It’s the battle of the sexes and it’s no game. There is a glaring gap in Michigan and Wisconsin between the number of women supporting Harris and the number of men supporting Trump,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy highlighted.
Malloy added that in two weeks “on November 5th, it will all come down to who shows up.”
Former President Trump speaks as he visits a campaign office in Hamtranck, Michigan, on Friday. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Both polls point to some positive movement for Harris.
Trump was up by 2 points in Wisconsin in Quinnipiac’s previous survey, conducted earlier this month. Now the two major party nominees are tied.
In Michigan, Harris’ 3-point edge is a switch from earlier this month, when Quinnipiac indicated Trump up by 3 points.
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Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, had razor-thin margins that decided President Biden’s 2020 White House victory over Trump. And the seven states are likely to determine if Trump or Harris wins this year.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are also the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”
The party reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election to win the White House.
Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris debate in Philadelphia on Sept. 10. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats’ column and defeat Trump.
Both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, as well as their running mates, have made repeated stops in the three states this summer and autumn.
Wisconsin and Michigan are also home to crucial Senate races that are among a handful that will determine if the GOP wins back the chamber’s majority.
In Michigan, the new poll indicates Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, 52%-44%, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
And in Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin narrowly edges Republican challenger Eric Hovde 49%-48%.
The Quinnipiac University surveys were conducted Oct. 17-21, with overall sampling errors of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.