A new poll indicates a deadlocked Senate race in Maryland, where Republicans are aiming to flip a long-held Democrat seat in an overwhelmingly blue state in a key contest that may decide if the GOP wins back the chamber’s majority.
Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan – the Republican nominee in the race – and Democratic nominee Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks both stand at 46% support among likely voters in Maryland, according to an AARP public opinion survey released on Tuesday.
Seven percent were undecided, according to the survey conducted Aug. 14-20.
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Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland celebrates his victory in the 2024 Maryland Republican Senate primary, in Annapolis, Maryland, on May 14, 2024. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)
The poll is the first since the May primary in Maryland to indicate a tied race, with previous surveys suggesting Alsobrooks with the lead. The winner of the November election will succeed Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin, who is retiring this year after serving nearly two decades in the Senate and nearly six decades as a state and then federal lawmaker.
While Hogan and Alsobrooks are tied, the poll indicates Vice President Kamala Harris far ahead of former President Donald Trump in Maryland. According to the survey, Harris tops Trump by 30 points in a multi-candidate field and by 32 points in a head-to-head match-up.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Maryland Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Vice President Kamala Harris, right, stand on stage together after speaking at a campaign event on Gun Violence Awareness Day at Kentland Community Center on June 7, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
“Hogan is running a net 32-points ahead of Trump,” the poll’s release highlighted. “Not surprisingly, he is outrunning Trump among all major demographic groups.”
Democrats control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 margin, and Republicans are looking at a favorable election map this year with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.
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One of those seats is in West Virginia, a deep red state that Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020. With moderate Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin, a former governor, not seeking re-election, flipping the seat is nearly a sure thing for the GOP.
Republicans are also aiming to flip seats in Ohio and Montana, two states Trump comfortably carried four years ago. And five more Democratic-held seats up for grabs this year are in crucial presidential-election battleground states.
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With Democrats trying to protect their fragile Senate majority, Hogan’s late entry into the race in February gave them an unexpected headache in a state previously considered safe territory. Hogan left the governor’s office at the beginning of 2023 with very positive approval and favorable ratings.
The poll highlights that “Hogan is making the race competitive in spite of Maryland’s large Democratic registration advantage by winning Independents by 23-points and also a quarter of Democrats.”
Republican Presidential nominee former President Donald Trump takes questions at a campaign event in Howell, Michigan, on Aug. 21, 2024. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Hogan, a vocal Republican Trump critic who flirted with a 2024 White House run before deciding against it, has repeatedly said that he won’t vote for the former president in November’s election. And in the spring, he stood out from most other Republicans for publicly calling for the guilty verdicts in Trump’s criminal trial to be respected.
Asked about having Trump at the top of the Republican ticket, Hogan said in a Fox News Digital interview earlier this year that “it’s a tough hurdle to overcome because he lost my state by 33 points…It’s not going to be helpful to me, but I think we’re going to be able to overcome that challenge.”
The AARP poll was conducted by the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (Republican) & Impact Research (Democrat). The firms interviewed 1,258 likely voters in Maryland.