Anger at Russia’s covert efforts, which included targeting undersea cables, warehouses and railways, has the potential to influence European reactions to the U.S.-led push for an end to the war.
Russia significantly stepped up its sabotage campaign over the past two years as it sought to pressure Europe and the United States to curb their support for Ukraine, according to a new study released on Tuesday.
The report, by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is one of the first that try to quantify the scale of Moscow’s covert campaign that targeted undersea cables, warehouses and railways. It found that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023 and then tripled again from 2023 to 2024.
“This is an important tool that the Russians are using in coordination with their conventional war in Ukraine,” said Seth G. Jones, the author of the study and a former adviser to the U.S. military. “It makes very little sense now for Russia to push troops across the border to the Baltic States or Finland. But their payback for these countries that are providing weapons is going after their companies, assassination plots against officials and threatening critical infrastructure.”
Amid the push by Washington to halt the war in Ukraine, Russia has tamped down its sabotage efforts in recent weeks, according to a Western official. But experts believe the campaign against European targets could continue once governments put in place new plans to support Ukraine with weapons or peacekeepers.
Anger at Russia’s sabotage efforts has the potential to influence European reactions to the U.S.-led push for an end to the war in Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland noted in a social media post on Monday that Lithuanian officials had confirmed his assessment that Russia was responsible for a series of fires in shopping centers in Warsaw and Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital. “Good to know before negotiations,” Mr. Tusk wrote. “Such is the nature of this state.”
The message to countries supporting Ukraine has been that Russia can impose costs — and increase them. There is little evidence that the Russian campaign was effective last year. But as the United States apparently retreats from its backing of Ukraine and European allies, the question will be whether a covert Russian campaign can become more successful at pushing countries to reconsider their support.