Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate race, new poll shows

James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, is leading both of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups ahead of the general election, according to a new poll.

In the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted in mid-April, likely general election voters in the Lone Star State say they would back Talarico over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), 44 percent to 41 percent — just outside the poll’s margin of error. Another 11 percent of respondents say they’re undecided.

In a hypothetical match-up against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), the Democratic candidate’s advantage widens to 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with just 9 percent of respondents undecided.

None of the Republican candidates for the Senate secured a majority of votes during the primary election, sending Cornyn and Paxton to a runoff on May 26. The winner will face Talarico in November.

In both hypothetical match-ups, Talarico leads among independent voters by more than 20 percentage points. Against Cornyn, Talarico leads 51 percent to 29 percent, and against Paxton, his advantage widens to 53 percent to 28 percent.

Similar trends are seen among moderate voters, who back Talarico by more than 40 percentage points in both hypothetical races: Talarico leads Cornyn 62 percent to 19 percent, while he leads Paxton 65 percent to 16 percent.

Talarico appears to have far outraised both potential Republican candidates since the primary last month, according to a New York Times analysis, but Cornyn holds a significant advantage over his GOP opponent.

Since the primary, Cornyn has brought in more than $6.5 million across his campaign’s funds and an independent political action committee backing him. Paxton’s campaign and independent PAC, meanwhile, raised more than $1.9 million, the Times reported.

The survey, conducted April 17-20, included 1,865 likely general election voters. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.