When the U.S. Hit Canada With Steep Tariffs Before, Canada Had a Plan B

But economic, political and technological changes have left Canada with few ways to handle trade restrictions now.

After Donald J. Trump’s presidential inauguration on Monday, Canadians will learn whether he intends to follow through on his threat to immediately impose 25 percent tariffs on exports from Canada to the United States.

Trucks crossing the Ambassador Bridge at night.
About $300 million in trade moves between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit each day.Ian Willms for The New York Times

I’m on assignment in my hometown, Windsor, Ontario, which, as a border city and an automotive center, will be anxiously watching the political and economic fallout.

[Read: In Canada’s ‘Suburb of Detroit,’ Fears Over Trump’s Tariff Threat]

[Read: Defending Michigan’s Auto Industry, Whitmer Warns of Tariff Risks]

Many people here have told me they are looking forward to the details of the federal government’s response to any American trade action. Matina Stevis-Gridneff, our Canada bureau chief, reports that it will be much like Canada’s response to the tariffs on aluminum and steel that Mr. Trump introduced during his first administration. Any coming retaliatory tariffs, she writes, will “focus on goods made in Republican or swing states, where the pain of tariffs, like pressure on jobs and the bottom lines of local businesses, would affect Trump allies.”

[Read: Canada’s Plan for a Trade War: Pain for Red States and Trump Allies]

But given the size of Canada’s economy, the country cannot inflict the same amount of harm that the United States can. That raises the question of whether retaliation, no matter how politically targeted, will be effective.