Polls, gas prices have Democrats up and GOP down on midterms

Democrats are growing increasingly optimistic and Republicans increasingly gloomy about the midterm election outlook, as polls move against President Trump and redistricting wars between the parties look like they won’t make a huge difference in the results.

Against that backdrop, the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner on Saturday forced both parties back into a familiar debate: whether a moment of political violence — and yet another assassination attempt — can still move a deeply polarized electorate. 

Democrats, while expressing sorrow over Saturday’s shooting, largely dismissed the idea of a repeat of the summer of 2024, when Trump’s defiant reaction to an attempt on his life at a rally in Butler, Pa., became the defining image of his campaign.

They argued that Trump had already blunted some goodwill from the electorate with his response to the near tragedy.

Rather than projecting a sustained unifying tone — something he briefly did in the hours after the attack from the White House press room — Trump made comments about the need for a White House ballroom and lobbed attacks at CBS journalist Norah O’Donnell, who interviewed the president over the weekend, following the tragic event. 

“Whatever goodwill Trump had, he’s already squandered it — attacking Norah O’Donnell and using the moment to pitch his new ballroom,” said Democratic strategist Anthony Coley. “Americans are focused on gas, groceries, and the cost-of-living crisis. 

“Until Trump meets them there, his approval ratings won’t change,” Coley added. 

The White House also appeared to recognize the political potential of the WHCA shooting, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt arguing Democratic rhetoric about Trump had laid the groundwork for Saturday’s frightening spectacle.

Speaking from the White House podium, Leavitt — who was sitting on the dais beside first lady Melania Trump at Saturday’s dinner — said that the “hateful and violent” rhetoric and comparisons of Trump to Adolf Hitler by Democrats were “fueling this kind of violence.” 

She also blamed Democrats for withholding funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which funds the Secret Service. 

Democrats are optimistic about 2028 in part because for the first time since 2010, Americans say they trust Democrats more than Republicans — 52 percent to 48 percent — to handle the economy, according to the latest Fox News poll. 

Trump is not on the ballot this year, but the midterm elections are widely expected to serve as a referendum on Trump’s handling of the economy and other issues.

A Republican strategist agreed with Leavitt on the Democratic rhetoric. 

“The level of rhetoric on the left is through the roof,” the strategist said. “There’s been three attempts at the president’s life; a major Republican activist, Charlie Kirk, was also assassinated. Do we need more proof?” 

At the same time, the GOP strategist wasn’t sure if the American public would rally around Trump ahead of the midterms. 

“Sadly we’ve become immune to this sort of thing,” the strategist said. “Life seems to have carried on.” 

Democrats have also been elated about their redistricting efforts, particularly after a victory on that front last week in Virginia. 

“I think in terms of pure math it will roughly be a wash, but that in and of itself is a big win for Dems,” said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale. “And then also overall it gets the base fired up to see their leadership standing up and fighting back.” 

Republicans appear to recognize they need to do more work on redistricting.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has proposed a map that would aim to win four more seats for the GOP in his state, though election experts said it was a somewhat risky proposition.

“In a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP,” Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report, wrote in a post on the social platform X.

If Florida does go through with its redistricting effort, it could give the GOP an overall advantage after Texas, California, Virginia, Missouri and other states rewrote lines to give their respective majority parties an edge.

The problem for the GOP is that Democrats need only gain a handful of seats in the House to take the majority, and the president’s party generally loses seats in a midterm. High gas prices and the Iran war have only added to the Democratic confidence.

A few months ago, Republicans were highly confident they’d retain the Senate, where the GOP would have to lose a net of four seats to see its majority fall. That confidence has been shaken over the last two months as the Iran war has dragged on.

The Cook Political Report has an open Senate seat in North Carolina as leaning toward Democrats, while GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and John Husted (Ohio) are in toss-up races. Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-Alaska) race leans toward the GOP.

Since the shooting, some Democrats — even those who work in politics — have floated conspiracy theories about the evening. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) went as far as calling it a hoax in the immediate hours after the dinner. 

“Has there ever been a president have this many close ‘attempts’ on their life?” Crockett said on the social media site Threads. “Maybe it’s lax gun laws, maybe it’s lack of mental health funding, or maybe it’s fake … who knows.” 

Strategists say social media has contributed to the rumor mill. 

“I think social media algorithms are exponentially increasing the amount of crazy s— that gets pushed to people,” Vale said. 

Susan Del Percio, a veteran Republican strategist, said while Trump was “very good” in his remarks at the White House podium in the immediate aftermath of the shooting, his later comments went the way of his acceptance speech at the 2024 Republican National Convention, where he largely blamed Democrats for the rising prevalence of political violence.

But she predicted the story of the WHCA violence wouldn’t last “past Wednesday.”

“We have become so desensitized to this,” she said.